Will America ever get out of debt?
Why History Shows the United States Will Not Grow Out of Its Debt. The United States is approaching record levels of debt. Debt held by the public totaled 97 percent of gross domestic product (GDP) at the end of 2022 and is on track to exceed its previous all-time high, which occurred just after World II, by 2029.
Under current policy, the United States has about 20 years for corrective action after which no amount of future tax increases or spending cuts could avoid the government defaulting on its debt whether explicitly or implicitly (i.e., debt monetization producing significant inflation).
It ultimately comes down to the U.S. taxpayers. That means in order to pay it off, or at least make a larger dent in the debt, the federal government would have to raise taxes and cut spending.
Reducing the debt will require Congress to make politically difficult decisions to either curb spending, raise taxes, or both. Other experts say the United States can safely afford to continue borrowing at present levels because it pays relatively little interest due to its unique position in the global economy.
Answer and Explanation:
If the U.S. was to pay off their debt ultimately, there is not much that would happen. Paying off the debt implies that the government will now focus on using the revenue collected primarily from taxes to fund its activities.
Japan and China have been the largest foreign holders of US debt for the last two decades. Japan and China held almost 50% of all foreign-owned US debt between 2004 and 2006. However, this has declined over time, and as of 2022 they controlled approximately 25% of foreign-owned debt.
Many people believe that much of the U.S. national debt is owed to foreign countries like China and Japan, but the truth is that most of it is owed to Social Security and pension funds right here in the U.S. This means that U.S. citizens own most of the national debt.
Tax cuts, stimulus programs, increased government spending, and decreased tax revenue caused by widespread unemployment generally account for sharp rises in the national debt. Comparing a country's debt to its gross domestic product (GDP) reveals the country's ability to pay down its debt.
At the top is Japan, whose national debt has remained above 100% of its GDP for two decades, reaching 255% in 2023.
Nearly every year, the government spends more than it collects in taxes and other revenue, resulting in a deficit. (The debt ceiling, set by Congress, caps how much the U.S. can borrow to pay for its remaining bills.) The national debt, now at a historic high, is the buildup of its deficits over time.
How bad are we in debt?
The more than $34 trillion current US debt is greater than the $27 trillion US nominal gross domestic product (GDP).
China is one of the United States's largest creditors, owning about $859.4 billion in U.S. debt. 1 However, it does not own the most U.S. debt of any foreign country. Nations borrowing from each other may be as old as the concept of money.
Decreased savings and income
The private sector will stop seeking investments that can generate growth due to the incentive to save. This includes the lower amount of capital available once individuals stop investing in securities offered by businesses due to treasury securities being more attractive.
- Japan. $1,098.2. 14.52%
- China. $769.6. 10.17%
- United Kingdom. $693. 9.16%
- Luxembourg. $345.4. 4.57%
- Cayman Islands. $323.8. 4.28%
The Penn Wharton Budget Model projects that U.S. federal government debt held by the public will grow to 190 percent of the size of the economy (gross domestic product) by 2050. We have previously explained how growing debt reduces GDP growth over time.
The financial position of the United States includes assets of at least $269 trillion (1576% of GDP) and debts of $145.8 trillion (852% of GDP) to produce a net worth of at least $123.8 trillion (723% of GDP).
Of the $33T of debt, roughly 78% is owned by the public (70% US vs 30% International). The major US public owners include the FED ($6T, but they are no longer buyers), mutual funds, banks, states, pension funds and insurance companies.
Russia National Government Debt reached 281.6 USD bn in Feb 2024, compared with 287.8 USD bn in the previous month. Russia National Government Debt data is updated monthly, available from May 2009 to Feb 2024. The data reached an all-time high of 384.2 USD bn in Jun 2022 and a record low of 86.1 USD bn in May 2009.
The current debt is $31 trillion, and the government collects $3 trillion in tax revenue each year. Allowing for a little interest, and offsetting for inflation, they could do that in a decade (again, imagining that magically the country is able to carry on normally despite zero Federal government spending).
- Brunei. 3.2%
- Afghanistan. 7.8%
- Kuwait. 11.5%
- Democratic Republic of Congo. 15.2%
- Eswatini. 15.5%
- Palestine. 16.4%
- Russia. 17.8%
Who does China owe money to?
Most of China's local government debt, one of the most regular issuers of domestic debt, is held by state-owned or state-controlled financial institutions. For decades, China's local governments have relied on off balance sheet borrowing through local government financing vehicles (LGFVs).
At the end of 2022, the nation's gross debt had reached nearly $31.4 trillion. Of that amount, about $24.5 trillion, or 78 percent, was debt held by the public — representing cash borrowed from domestic and foreign investors.
United States
The Colorado Taxpayer Bill of Rights (the TABOR amendment) also bans surpluses and requires the state to refund taxpayers in event of a budget surplus. The last time that the budget was balanced or had a surplus was the 2001 United States federal budget.
A nation saddled with debt will have less to invest in its own future. Rising debt means fewer economic opportunities for Americans. Rising debt reduces business investment and slows economic growth. It also increases expectations of higher rates of inflation and erosion of confidence in the U.S. dollar.
In fact, Estonia is not only a successful country without hardly any debt, but also one of the wealthiest. Additionally, its long-term growth trajectory remains very strong. With just under a million and a half inhabitants, and no natural resources, Estonia was part of the Soviet Union until 1991.
References
- https://fiscaldata.treasury.gov/americas-finance-guide/national-debt/
- https://www.quora.com/How-long-would-it-take-to-pay-off-the-national-debt-of-the-United-States-if-the-government-stopped-spending-money-and-only-used-money-from-tax-revenue-to-pay-it-off
- https://www.itsuptous.org/blog/consequences-of-national-debt
- https://www.thebalancemoney.com/who-owns-the-u-s-national-debt-3306124
- https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Balanced_budget
- https://www.cbsnews.com/minnesota/news/good-question-how-did-the-u-s-debt-get-so-high/
- https://homework.study.com/explanation/what-would-happen-if-the-u-s-actually-paid-off-the-national-debt-where-would-the-banks-big-financial-institutions-and-government-foreign-and-domestic-put-their-cash.html
- https://www.investopedia.com/articles/investing/080615/china-owns-us-debt-how-much.asp
- https://www.visualcapitalist.com/government-debt-by-country-advanced-economies/
- https://www.cfr.org/backgrounder/us-national-debt-dilemma
- https://www.pgpf.org/top-10-reasons-why-the-national-debt-matters
- https://www.scmp.com/economy/china-economy/article/3084979/china-debt-how-big-it-who-owns-it-and-what-next
- https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/us-national-debt-grew-314-trillion-high/story?id=99429867
- https://usafacts.org/articles/which-countries-own-the-most-us-debt/
- https://www.ceicdata.com/en/indicator/russia/national-government-debt
- https://www.clearfinances.net/countries-without-public-debt/
- https://www.investopedia.com/articles/markets-economy/090616/5-countries-own-most-us-debt.asp
- https://www.pgpf.org/blog/2023/05/the-federal-government-has-borrowed-trillions-but-who-owns-all-that-debt
- https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/who-going-buy-all-us-debt-rod-khleif-gdete
- https://budgetmodel.wharton.upenn.edu/issues/2023/9/29/stabilize-federal-debt-economic-growth
- https://www.vedantu.com/commerce/debt-free-countries
- https://budgetmodel.wharton.upenn.edu/issues/2023/10/6/when-does-federal-debt-reach-unsustainable-levels
- https://www.invesco.com/us/en/insights/us-government-debt-investment-risk.html
- https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Financial_position_of_the_United_States